| 07
March, 2006
Population
Time Bomb Threatens Economy of Uganda
Kampala, Uganda —
UGANDA's
current population growth rate is
worrying, the Population Secretariat
has said. The secretariat has warned
that the population explosion rate,
which is over 3 percent, is inversely
proportional to the rate at which
the economy is growing.
"We
would like to note with concern that
the current rate at which Uganda's
population is growing is overwhelming,"
the POPSEC Director, Mr Jotham Musinguzi,
said. He told Daily Monitor in an
interview on March 7, that the major
concern, according to their statistics,
was that the increase in the number
of people was not reflecting a proportionate
growth of the economy.
"The
general increase in the population
is not, in any case, showing improvement
in the country's economic performance.
For instance, 13 million people need
jobs this year and by 2010 when the
population is expected to stand at
33 million, the number of job seekers
will increase to 15 million,"
Musinguzi said.
"Where
will the jobs for all those millions
of people come from yet even the current
overwhelming figure is still unemployed?"
he asked. However, the Deputy Executive
Director of Uganda Bureau of Statistics,
Mr James Mubiru, challenged the conclusion
saying the country's population growth
rate statistics indicate a thin decrease.
"I
agree with the fact that we are not
doing well as far as reducing population
growth but, at least the recent census
indicates a slight decrease from the
usual 3.3 to 3.2 percent," he
told Daily Monitor in a telephone
interview on March 7.
Mubiru
said the reduction was based on a
demographic principle that Kotido
district had registered a shortfall
of 200,000 people from the previous
total population of 591,000 to 377,000,
which empirical observation, gives
UBOS the conclusion that the growth
rate was reducing.
But,
Musinguzi claims the country still
faces the rate of population growth
as a major threat given the fact that
Uganda continues to register an average
increase of 1.5 million people annually.
If
the current population growth rate
estimated at 3.3 percent remains unchecked,
the country will have a total population
of 55 million by 2025, meaning about
28 million people, which is the approximate
total population this year will be
jobless.
Asked
whether POSEC had a strategy to check
the looming crisis, Musinguzi said
they were quickly reviewing the national
population policy to reflect appropriate
strategies that would address the
identified challenges.
He
explained that under the new policy,
which is expected to be out by July
this year, priority would be given
to provision of adequate infrastructure,
proper planning for urbanisation as
well as attracting investment to help
the government easily provide employment
and social services like education,
health, water and sanitation.
Mr
Davis Ddamulira, a senior policy analyst,
doubted the aforementioned steps by
POPSEC saying their policies are influenced
by the factor of dependence.
"The
current policies are not suitable
because the government tends to over
depend on the private sector and the
donors," Ddamulira said, adding
that it should come out critically
to support local investors whose businesses
employ the majority of Ugandans.
He
said creating a suitable environment
for investment by the local population
would encourage more investment where
even persons at the grassroots would
have an income generating activity
to sustain their livelihood.
According
to 2002 census, Uganda had a population
of 24.7 million, which now is estimated
at 28 million. According to the July
2005 estimates, Kenya has a total
population of 33.8 million while Tanzania
has 36.7 million.
However,
the estimates for both countries explicitly
take into account the effects of excess
mortality due to HIV/Aids. Contrary
to the Millennium Development Goals
targets; this can result in lower
life expectancy, higher infant mortality
and death rates, lower population
and growth rates, and changes in the
distribution of population by age
and sex than would otherwise be expected.
The
score sheet developed after intensive
countrywide research by the Uganda
National NGO Forum shows some progress
on some MDG goals, low score in others
as well as dismal failures on others.
There was, for instance, good progress
on Universal Primary Education and
HIV/Aids, but a very low score on
Women's empowerment and relatively
no progress made to reduce Child and
Maternal Mortality since the 1970s.
Regardless
of the predicted crisis, the Uganda
Manufacturers Association claims it
was preparing itself to avert any
negative implications that would arise
as a result of sharp population increase.
UMA
Chairman, Mr Abid Alam, said their
strategies were focusing on creating
an economically viable Uganda with
potential to sustain her population
with emphasis put on creation of more
employment opportunities by fully
utilising the natural resources.
News
Source: The Monitor (Uganda)
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